Forbes explores whether Kyiv could regain nuclear status to deter Russian aggression
In an article published by the American outlet Forbes on May 31, journalist Kevin Holden Platt explores a hypothetical scenario in which Ukraine reinitiates its nuclear weapons program as a potential deterrent in its war against Russia. The author suggests that such a strategy could potentially change the course of the war or even force the Kremlin into retreat—although in reality, this move remains highly unlikely due to a range of legal, technical, and diplomatic constraints.
Budapest Memorandum and Nuclear Disarmament
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. In 1994, under the Budapest Memorandum, Kyiv agreed to relinquish its nuclear capabilities in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. However, Russia’s 2014 invasion—and especially the full-scale invasion in 2022—cast doubt on the effectiveness of those guarantees.
In this context, Forbes notes that calls for reconsidering Ukraine’s nuclear status are growing louder, at least as a strategic signal to both the West and Russia.
Is It Technically Feasible?
According to experts cited in the article, Ukraine has a strong engineering base, highly skilled personnel, and access to nuclear materials—making it theoretically possible to develop nuclear weapons within 1–2 years. However, Ukraine is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and withdrawing from it would likely result in diplomatic isolation and severe sanctions.
Monitoring and Russian Threats
Another major obstacle identified by analysts is the complete lack of secrecy. Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure—including research reactors and material processing facilities—is under constant monitoring by the IAEA. Russian intelligence closely monitors developments in this field using espionage, technical surveillance, and satellite imagery.
According to several experts, even the suggestion of launching such a program could provoke an immediate response from the Kremlin—ranging from precision strikes to sabotage. The Russian Federation would likely perceive this as an “existential threat” and attempt to eliminate any potential capability in its infancy. As Forbes writes, this makes the idea extremely risky and vulnerable in terms of both security and facility survivability.
A Message to Allies
As Forbes points out, the idea of Ukraine acquiring its own nuclear deterrent may serve more as a political signal to allies—suggesting that if the West does not ensure Ukraine’s security, Kyiv may be forced to seek deterrence independently. Such rhetoric could push NATO toward stronger defense commitments.
At this stage, however, the scenario remains mostly theoretical—Ukraine’s leadership, despite frustrations with international security assurances, continues to adhere to its non-proliferation obligations.
