The British Army unveils a transformative strategy focused on unmanned and autonomous systems, inspired by Ukraine’s battlefield experience.
In May 2025, the British Army introduced its “20-40-40” doctrine, marking a dramatic departure from conventional warfare (The Times, May 26, 2025). Influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine – where drones have decimated multi-million-dollar tanks – the strategy envisions an army composed of 80% unmanned and autonomous systems. The goal: to enhance battlefield effectiveness and minimize human casualties in a rapidly evolving conflict environment.
The Core of the “20-40-40” Concept
The doctrine breaks down military assets into three categories:
- 20% traditional heavy platforms (e.g., Challenger 3 tanks, self-propelled artillery) for deep-rear operations.
- 40% expendable munitions like kamikaze drones for fast, low-cost strikes.
- 40% reusable autonomous systems, such as Watchkeeper WK450 and MQ-9 Reaper UAVs, for sustained battlefield surveillance and precision engagement.
Drawing from Ukraine’s lessons – where drones destroyed hundreds of tanks within 20 km of the front line – the UK plans to fully implement this new structure by 2030, as outlined in its 2025 Strategic Defence Review.
Foundation: The UK Defence Drone Strategy
The doctrine is built upon the UK Defence Drone Strategy, launched in February 2024 with a £4.5 billion budget. The initiative aims to fast-track drone development and deployment across all branches of the UK Armed Forces.
Key features include:
- The 3-2-1 model: Identify a problem, choose two promising solutions, and test them rapidly. Systems are expected to be operational by 2027, covering ISR, strike, logistics, and naval mine clearance.
- Drone swarms: A single operator can command multiple drones for synchronized recon or attacks. In 2024, a six-drone swarm surveyed 100 km², while RF DEW weapons neutralized enemy UAVs at a 1 km range.
- Systems in service:
- MQ-9 Reaper: Armed UAV for precision strike .
- Watchkeeper WK450 and Puma 3 AE: Tactical drones for real-time ISR.
Implementation Challenges
Despite the promising vision, the doctrine faces serious hurdles:
1. Cyber and Electronic Warfare (EW) Threats
Drones remain vulnerable to hacking and jamming. In Ukraine, Russian EW systems like Krasukha-4 disrupted drone comms. In response, the UK is investing in resilient architectures and encrypted communication systems (e.g., Tekever’s StormShroud project). NATO collaboration is focused on unified cyber standards for drone fleets.
2. Ethical Dilemmas of Autonomous Weapons
AI-powered drones raise questions about accountability. If an autonomous drone misfires – who’s responsible? The UK plans to draft ethical frameworks with NATO and the UN, alongside investments in explainable AI to improve trust in decision-making systems.
3. Operator Training Deficit
Drone swarms and AI systems require highly skilled operators. As of 2024, only 200 UK personnel were certified to operate drone swarms – less than 1% of the force. In response, specialized training centers (e.g., at RAF Waddington) and international cooperation through AUKUS are being scaled up.
Strategic and Economic Impacts
The doctrine reshapes not only tactics but also the defense market:
Demand for traditional armor is expected to decline.
Drone and AI companies like Thales, Tekever, and BAE Systems are positioned to benefit from major contracts.
The 3-2-1 model opens opportunities for small, agile defense startups, fostering innovation and economic growth.
Conclusion
The “20-40-40” doctrine positions the UK as a pioneer in building the army of the future – lean, lethal, and largely unmanned. Unlike the mass drone production of China or the modular platforms of the US, Britain’s approach emphasizes precision and adaptability. But as the UK races toward 2030, success will depend on whether it can navigate the cyber, ethical, and human factors of unmanned warfare.
