Four future paths for Ukraine, from alliance to annexation.
Even in the most optimistic outcome, Ukraine may not regain full sovereignty over its entire territory, according to JPMorgan Chase's Geopolitical Center.
In a recent analysis, the Center suggests that due to Europe's limited military resources, Ukraine's manpower shortages, waning U.S. patience, and declining transatlantic unity, President Zelensky may be compelled to accept an agreement with Russia this year. Such an agreement could lead to a freeze in hostilities without achieving a comprehensive peace deal.
The Center outlines four potential scenarios for Ukraine's future, each drawing parallels with other nations:
1. "South Korea" Scenario – 15% Probability
Ukraine does not attain NATO membership or full territorial integrity but receives security guarantees, including the presence of EU troops and U.S. support. This allows 80% of the territory under Kyiv's control to develop as an independent democratic state. The unfreezing of $300 billion in Russian assets could serve as a foundation for reconstruction.
2. "Israel" Scenario – 20% Probability
Western support remains strong but without direct military presence. Ukraine establishes its own deterrence system, yet the threat persists. Putin may demand the easing of sanctions and diplomatic concessions.
3. "Georgia" Scenario – 50% Probability
Ukraine receives neither foreign troops nor sufficient military support. External assistance diminishes, the economy slows, and the course toward Western integration effectively halts. A gradual return to Russia's sphere of influence ensues.
4. "Belarus" Scenario – 15% Probability
If U.S. support wanes, Russia achieves a strategic victory, transforming Ukraine into a vassal state and disrupting the post-World War II global order.
The analysts emphasize that Ukraine's victory is possible only with robust, coordinated Western support.
About the Authors
The report was prepared by Derek Chollet, Managing Director of JPMorgan Chase's Geopolitical Center, and Lisa Sawyer, Executive Director of the Center. Chollet has held senior positions in the U.S. State Department, Pentagon, White House, and Congress, while Sawyer has served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO policy.
